The Bennett Hypothesis: When Good Intentions Create Market Distortions

How Federal Student Aid May Drive College Tuition Inflation
Exploring the unintended consequences of student loan programs and the 2025 nursing degree reclassification that sparked national debate about higher education financing

The 2025 Nursing Controversy: A Policy Catalyst

In late 2025, the Department of Education said it would no longer classify several credentials as professional degrees: education, nursing (MSN, DNP), social work (MSW, DSW), public health (MPH, DrPH), physician assistant, occupational therapy, physical therapy, audiology, speech-language pathology and counseling and therapy degrees.

President Donald Trump's July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act eliminated a program that allowed graduate students to borrow up to the full cost of their attendance and placed caps on how much students could borrow. Under the new law, students in "professional degree" programs can borrow the highest amount at an annual limit of $50,000 with a lifetime cap of $200,000. Students in other graduate programs can borrow $20,500 annually, with a lifetime cap of $100,000.

Impact on Healthcare Education

One of the most immediate impacts involves student financial aid. When nursing is no longer categorized as a "professional degree," students may face stricter borrowing caps under federal loan programs. The change will impact hundreds of thousands of students—there are over 260,000 students currently enrolled in entry-level Bachelor of Science in Nursing (BSN) programs and around 42,000 enrolled in Associate Degree in Nursing (ADN), according to data collected by the American Nurses Association.

Jennifer Mensik Kennedy, president of the American Nurses Association, stated: "Nurses make up the largest segment of the healthcare workforce and the backbone of our nation's health system. At a time when healthcare in our country faces a historic nurse shortage and rising demands, limiting nurses' access to funding for graduate education threatens the very foundation of patient care."

But this controversy has sparked a deeper conversation: Could limiting student loan access actually help control college costs? This brings us to a decades-old economic theory that remains highly relevant today.

The Bennett Hypothesis: Origins and Theory

"Increases in financial aid in recent years have enabled colleges and universities blithely to raise their tuitions, confident that Federal loan subsidies would help cushion the increase"
— William J. Bennett, Secretary of Education, New York Times (1987)

The Bennett Hypothesis has dominated debates surrounding the cost of postsecondary education for decades. The underlying premise is straightforward: when the federal government increases financial aid availability, colleges respond by raising tuition prices, effectively capturing much of that aid for themselves.

The Economic Logic

The theory uses basic economic premises: providing a cost subsidy in the form of loans or grants will increase demand for higher education. As demand increases more quickly than supply, quantity will increase but so will prices.

304%
Tuition increase since 1985-86
278%
Federal loan increase (same period)
$1.75T
Current federal student loan debt
Source: Kauffman Foundation (2024); Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization (2023)

Academic Research: What Does the Evidence Show?

Over three decades of research has produced nuanced findings about the relationship between federal aid and tuition inflation. The evidence is neither uniformly supportive nor dismissive of the Bennett Hypothesis.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2015)

Lucca, Nadauld & Shen
Increases in institution-specific subsidized (unsubsidized) loan maximums lead to a sticker-price increase of about 60 (40) cents on the dollar. These effects are highly significant and consistent with the Bennett Hypothesis, applying to a large sample of Title IV institutions.

Richmond Federal Reserve (2022)

Gordon & others
The passthrough rate from student loans to tuition varies drastically over time based on economic and policy conditions. Passthrough rates were at their highest in the late 1980s before subsequently dropping to almost zero in the mid-to-late 1990s, steadily rising until 2006-2007 and finally collapsing to near zero in the late 2000s.

Cellini & Goldin - For-Profit Sector Study

National Bureau of Economic Research
For-profit colleges that are eligible for federal student aid programs charge tuition 78% higher than those that are not, and the dollar value of the premium is about equal to the amount of financial aid received by students in eligible institutions, lending credence to the "Bennett hypothesis"

Law School Analysis (2019)

ScienceDirect - Journal of Economics of Education Review
Leveraging a large increase in graduate student lending limits in 2006 followed by an expansion of federal income-driven repayment programs, researchers found rather modest relationships across both public and private nonprofit law schools.

Ballotpedia Research Summary (2017)

Multiple economic studies
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a study that documented the effects on tuition of increasing the maximum Pell Grant awarded to students. The researchers found that a dollar increase in the Pell Grant cap resulted in a 37 cent increase in sticker-price tuition.

Mercatus Center Analysis (2019)

Policy analysis review
A study finds a pass-through effect on tuition of changes in subsidized loan maximums of about 60 cents on the dollar, and 20 cents on the dollar for unsubsidized federal loans. These results suggest that expansions in federal aid can affect tuition for a broad set of students, including those who are not recipients of federal aid.

Mixed Evidence: The Complexity Emerges

Results and opinions are mixed — but there's isn't definitive evidence that federal aid is driving up costs across all types of schools. Experts say there isn't solid evidence that federal aid drives up college prices, except in one sector: for-profit colleges.

Key Finding: Time-Varying Effects

Was Bennett right? Sometimes yes, and sometimes no. There is no such thing as a fixed single passthrough rate. Rather, the passthrough rate is time-varying, which helps reconcile the wide range of empirical estimates from the literature and begs for further investigation into the time-varying nature of passthrough rates.

Evidence Against Simple Causation

Not all evidence supports the hypothesis. Federal Stafford loan limits did not increase from 1993 to 2007 or from 2008 to the present, yet college costs continued to increase during these periods. The maximum Federal Pell Grant remained unchanged at $2,300 from 1989-90 to 1994-95, at $4,050 from 2003-04 to 2006-07 and at $5,550 from 2010-11 to 2012-13, yet college costs continued to increase. Some of these time periods overlap, meaning that there were no increases in federal grants and loans, yet college costs continued to increase at the same pace.

At the graduate level, where students are now able to borrow from the federal government up to the total cost of their degree, research found that "in general, there were either no increases as a result, or just small increases." And at community colleges, where more than one-third of all undergraduates attend, "the amount of money that students can get in federal financial aid is already more than tuition. So [community colleges] already have that incentive to raise tuition to cover what federal aid can support, and by and large, they haven't done that."

The Chart: Visualizing the Relationship

Federal Student Aid vs. College Tuition Growth (1987-2023)
Source: National Center for Education Statistics; Federal Reserve Bank of New York research
Passthrough Rate Over Time: How Much of Each Aid Dollar Becomes Tuition?
Source: Richmond Federal Reserve (2022) - "Accounting for Tuition Increases Across U.S. Colleges"

Other Factors Driving College Costs

While the Bennett Hypothesis identifies one potential contributor to rising costs, researchers emphasize that college price inflation is multifaceted.

Declining State Funding

The biggest factor in the cost of college will be decisions from state governments about funding higher education. Research shows that when states cut back funding for higher education, students pay more.

Douglas Webber finds that, since 1987, for every $1,000 decrease in state funding per student there is on average a $257 increase in college costs to students as a result of increases in tuition, increased enrollment among out-of-state or international students, and/or reductions in institutional financial aid. Moreover, Webber finds that the rate at which institutions pass on funding cuts to students has risen.

Pre-2000
10.3% of state funding cuts were passed on to students, or a $103 increase in tuition revenue and fees per student
Post-2000
This rate increased to 31.8%, or a $318 increase in tuition revenue and fees per student, suggesting that institutions may have fewer places to trim expenditures to make up for lost appropriations

Additional Cost Drivers

Declining real state appropriations, an increasing college wage premium, the rising cost of research activities and faculty inputs, the expansion of administrative overhead to meet government requirements and the demand for student services, and the labor-intensive nature of the university production technology are oft-cited culprits for rapidly escalating tuitions

41%
Share of tuition increases attributed to reduced state spending since Great Recession
$840
Tuition increase at selective research institutions from 10% state funding cut
25%
Federal aid captured by private colleges through reduced institutional aid
Sources: Bipartisan Policy Center (2024); Mercatus Center (2019)

The Bigger Picture: Policy Implications

The nursing degree reclassification in 2025 has reignited fundamental questions about how we finance higher education. While the immediate concern is access to healthcare education, the underlying debate touches on market distortions created by well-intentioned policies.

Key Takeaways from the Research

  • The relationship between federal aid and tuition is real but complex, varying by time period, institution type, and economic conditions
  • The strongest evidence for the Bennett Hypothesis exists in the for-profit college sector
  • Passthrough rates are not constant—they depend on whether students are credit-constrained and how much slack exists in the system
  • State funding cuts appear to be a major driver of public college tuition increases, particularly since 2000
  • Multiple factors contribute to cost inflation: administrative expansion, research costs, competition for rankings, and reduced state support
  • Limiting loan access may reduce tuition pressure, but could also restrict educational access for disadvantaged students

If the Bennett Hypothesis holds true, and an increase in borrowing limits increases tuition, it would logically follow that limiting the amount students can borrow would put downward pressure on tuition. However, this potential benefit must be weighed against the risk of reduced access to critical professions like nursing, teaching, and social work.

The challenge for policymakers is designing a system that controls costs without sacrificing educational access—a balance that has proven elusive for decades. As federal officials noted, the goal of the changes, including the new loan caps, is to ensure that borrowers won't face "insurmountable debt to finance degrees that do not pay off"

As the saying goes: "No good deed goes unpunished." Student loan programs began with noble intentions—expanding access to higher education—but may have inadvertently contributed to making that education less affordable. The 2025 nursing controversy forces us to confront this paradox directly.