2026 All Weather Portfolio Simulator

Customize market assumptions and simulate returns for Ray Dalio's diversified investment strategy

+7.2% Projected Return
5 Asset Classes
$107,200 Portfolio Value

Portfolio Simulator

Adjust market assumptions to see how your All Weather Portfolio performs in different scenarios

Market Assumptions

+10.0%
-30% +40%
4.5%
1.0% 8.0%
4.0%
1.0% 8.0%
15
10 yrs 25 yrs
7
3 yrs 10 yrs
+6.0%
-20% +35%
+5.0%
-25% +40%
$100,000
$10k $1M
Total Portfolio Return
+7.2%
Based on All Weather allocation strategy
Portfolio Value (2026)
$107,200
Initial investment: $100,000
Total Gain/Loss
+$7,200
Absolute dollar change
Calculated Bond Returns
Long-Term Bonds: +8.0%
Intermediate Bonds: +6.0%
Based on duration × rate change + starting yield
All Weather Allocation
📈 U.S. Stocks (S&P 500) 30%
📊 Long-Term Bonds (15+ yrs) 40%
📉 Intermediate Bonds (7-10 yrs) 15%
🥇 Gold 7.5%
🛢️ Commodities 7.5%

Portfolio Visualizations

Interactive charts showing allocation and projected performance

Asset Allocation Breakdown
Contribution to Total Return
Individual Asset Returns
Portfolio Growth Projection

Asset Class Performance

Detailed breakdown of each component's contribution

📈
U.S. Stocks
30% allocation
+10.0%
$30,000 → $33,000
📊
Long-Term Bonds
40% allocation
+4.0%
$40,000 → $41,600
📉
Intermediate Bonds
15% allocation
+3.0%
$15,000 → $15,450
🥇
Gold
7.5% allocation
+6.0%
$7,500 → $7,950
🛢️
Commodities
7.5% allocation
+5.0%
$7,500 → $7,875

About the All Weather Portfolio

What is the All Weather Portfolio?

The All Weather Portfolio is an investment strategy developed by Ray Dalio and Bridgewater Associates. It's designed to perform reasonably well across different economic environments—whether experiencing growth, inflation, deflation, or recession.

Asset Allocation Strategy

The portfolio uses risk parity principles to balance risk across asset classes:

  • 30% Stocks: Provides growth potential during economic expansion
  • 40% Long-Term Bonds: Protects against deflation and falling interest rates
  • 15% Intermediate-Term Bonds: Adds stability with moderate interest rate sensitivity
  • 7.5% Gold: Hedge against inflation and currency devaluation
  • 7.5% Commodities: Protection against unexpected inflation

How Bond Returns Are Calculated

Treasury bond returns are calculated using duration-based analysis, which captures how bond prices change with interest rate movements:

  • Duration: Measures a bond's price sensitivity to interest rate changes (typically in years)
  • Formula: Bond Return ≈ Starting Yield + (Duration × Change in Interest Rates)
  • Example: If rates fall from 4.5% to 4.0% (-0.5%) and duration is 15 years, the bond gains approximately 7.5% from price appreciation plus the 4.5% yield
  • Inverse Relationship: When rates fall, bond prices rise (and vice versa), amplified by duration

How to Use This Simulator

Adjust the sliders to reflect your expectations for 2026 market conditions. Set your starting and ending treasury rates to model interest rate scenarios. The simulator automatically calculates bond returns using duration analysis. Consider testing different scenarios—optimistic, pessimistic, and moderate—to understand your portfolio's potential range of outcomes.

Important Disclaimer

This simulator is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Actual returns will vary based on market conditions, timing, fees, and other factors. Consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Portfolio allocation based on Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio strategy (Bridgewater Associates)